Arizona is now transitioning from a period of elevated risk to one of moderate risk with continuing, albeit smaller, improvements likely in the coming weeks. Hospital capacity remains adequate to meet Arizona’s foreseeable needs; however, it will be several months before the backlog of non-Covid care is fully addressed.

While residents and businesses should continue to follow recommended public health mitigation efforts, normalization of lower risk activities is reasonable as case rates have fallen below 100 new diagnoses per 100,000 residents per week. New cases are now being diagnosed at a rate of 94 per 100K per week. For reference, September 8^th marked the fall nadir between the summer and winter outbreaks at 38 per 100K per week. Arizonans who are at risk of developing severe disease (e.g., age or comorbid conditions) should remain sheltered as much as feasible until fully vaccinated.

Note: Data for this report was updated Friday, March 5 allowing 4 full days to adjudicate cases and keep week-over-week backfill <10%. This allows more interpretable comparisons and graphics. All comparisons are week-over-week changes. Future updates will be released on Saturdays.

Test positivity among those undergoing traditional nasopharyngeal PCR testing has resumed its decline after a brief pause last week, declining from 14% the week ending February 21st to 10% the week ending February 28th (Figure 3). Positivity is nearing the recommended 5 – 10% for optimal public health practice.

As of March 5th, 966 (11%) of Arizona’s 8568 general ward beds were occupied by Covid-19 patients, a 27% decrease from the previous week’s 1317 occupied beds (Figure 4 and Figure 5 Panel A). Another 952 (11%) beds remained available for use. The number of available beds is lower than the previous week’s 1002 beds.

Covid-19 occupancy has dropped by 81% from its January 11th peak of 5082 ward patients. Nevertheless, hospitals remain above seasonal occupancy.

As of March 5th, 280 (16%) of Arizona’s 1751 ICU beds were occupied with Covid-19 patients, a 33% decrease from the prior week’s count of 415 patients (Figure 4 and Figure 5 Panel B). An additional 263 (15%) ICU beds remained available for use. This is higher than the prior week’s 246 available beds. ICU occupancy has fallen 76% from its January 11th peak of 1183 occupied beds.

While Arizona hospitals’ safety margins remain low, they are slowly improving (Figure 6). Medically necessary procedures are now being scheduled in a more typical manner. Nevertheless, the backlog of postponed care will take months to resolve. As capacity constraints are lessened, care practices should return to those prior to the outbreak ensuring all patients will receive optimal care. Nevertheless, hospitals will remain crowded through the end of March – early April before returning to pre-outbreak levels assuming continued reductions in viral transmission.

The week ending January 17th remains Arizona’s deadliest with 1028 deaths (Figure 7). The week of January 17^th represents peak mortality with subsequent improvements for the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, Covid- 19 deaths are expected to remain high for the next 1 - 3 weeks, falling below 200 per week by the end of March.

For the week ending February 28th, 826 Pima County residents were diagnosed with Covid-19, a 24% decrease from the 1093 cases initially reported last week (Figure 8). 

Last week’s initial tally of 1093 cases was upwardly revised by 7% (81 cases) to 1174 cases. New cases are being diagnosed at a rate of 79 cases per 100K residents per week. For reference, October 9^th marked a nadir between the summer and winter outbreak at 46 cases per 100K residents per week. Trends are similar across the various age groups (Figure 9).