Arizona has now clearly transitioned from a period of crisis to one of elevated risk. With continuing, albeit slower, improvements being forecast for the coming weeks, hospital capacity will remain adequate to meet Arizona’s most critical needs for the foreseeable future. However, it will be several months before the backlog of non-Covid care is fully addressed.

While residents and businesses should continue to follow the recommended public health mitigation efforts, normalization of lower risk activities will soon become reasonable as case rates fall below 100 new diagnoses per 100,000 residents per week. New cases are now being diagnosed at a rate of 135 per 100K per week. For reference, September 8^th marked the fall nadir between the summer and winter outbreaks at 38 per 100K per week. Arizonans who are at risk of developing severe disease (e.g., age or comorbid conditions) should remain sheltered as much as feasible until fully vaccinated.

Note: Data for this report was updated Friday, February 26 allowing 4 full days to adjudicate cases and keep week-over-week backfill <10%. This allows more interpretable comparisons and graphics. All comparisons are week-over-week changes. Future updates will be released on Saturdays.

Unexpectedly, test positivity among those undergoing traditional nasopharyngeal PCR testing remained largely unchanged, 14% the week ending February 14^th and 15% the week ending February 21^st (Figure 3). Positivity still reflects inadequate testing relative to optimal public health practice as it should be <10%.

As of February 26th, 1317 (15%) of Arizona’s 8597 general ward beds were occupied by Covid-19 patients, a 20% decrease from the previous week’s 1650 occupied beds (Figure 4 and Figure 5 Panel A). Another 1002 (12%) beds remained available for use. The number of available beds is lower than the previous week’s 1039 beds.

Covid-19 occupancy has dropped by 74% from its January 11^th peak of 5082 ward patients. While this is good news hospitals remain far above seasonal occupancy.

As of February 26th, 415 (24%) of Arizona’s 1749 ICU beds were occupied with Covid-19 patients, a 20% decrease from the prior week’s count of 517 patients (Figure 4 and Figure 5 Panel B). An additional 246 (14%) ICU beds remained available for use. This is similar to the prior week’s 247 available beds. ICU occupancy has fallen 65% from its January 11^th peak of 1183 occupied beds.

While Arizona hospitals’ safety margins remain low, they are slowly improving (Figure 6). Medically necessary procedures are now being scheduled in a more typical manner. Nevertheless, the tremendous backlog of postponed care will take months to resolve. The recent trends in hospitalization numbers and occupancy are encouraging. As capacity constraints are lessened, care practices should return to those prior to the outbreak ensuring all patients will receive optimal care. Nevertheless, hospitals will remain crowded through the end of March – early April before returning to pre-outbreak levels assuming continued reductions in viral transmission.

The week ending January 17th remains Arizona’s deadliest with 1021 deaths (Figure 7). The week of January 17^th should represent a peak with subsequent improvement in the coming weeks. Nevertheless, Covid-19 deaths are expected to remain high for the next 2 - 4 weeks, falling below 200 per week by the end of March.

For the week ending February 21st, 1093 Pima County residents were diagnosed with Covid-19, a 34% decrease from the 1666 cases initially reported last week (Figure 8). 

Last week’s initial tally of 1666 cases was upwardly revised by 1% (45 cases) to 1711 cases. New cases are being diagnosed at a rate of 104 cases per 100K residents per week. For reference, October 9^th marked a nadir between the summer and winter outbreak at 46 cases per 100K residents per week. Trends are similar across the various age groups (Figure 9).