With sustained declines in viral transmission and hospital occupancy, Arizona has transitioned from a period of crisis to one of elevated risk. With continued improvements being forecast over the next 4 weeks, hospital capacity is adequate to meet Arizona’s most critical needs. Nevertheless, it will be many months before the backlog of non-Covid care can be fully addressed. While residents and businesses should continue to follow recommended public health mitigation efforts for the foreseeable future, normalization of lower risk activities will be reasonable once case rates fall below 100 new diagnoses per 100,000 residents per week. Arizona is now <250 per 100K per week. However, those with risk factors for severe disease (e.g., age or comorbid conditions) should continue to shelter as much as feasible until being fully vaccinated.

Note: Data for this report was updated Friday, February 12 allowing 4 full days to adjudicate cases and keep week-over-week backfill <10%. This allows more interpretable comparisons and graphics. All comparisons are week-over-week changes. Future updates will be released on Saturdays.

Test positivity among those undergoing traditional nasopharyngeal PCR testing decreased from 25% the week ending January 31st to 19% the week ending February 7th (Figure 3). High levels of test positivity reflects inadequate testing capacity relative to optimal public health practice as positivity should be <10%.

As of February 12th, 2300 (27%) of Arizona’s 8661 general ward beds were occupied by Covid-19 patients, a 25% decrease from the previous week’s 3060 occupied beds (Figure 4 and Figure 5 Panel A). Another 922 (11%) beds remained available for use. The number of available beds is higher than the previous week’s 890 beds.

Covid-19 occupancy has dropped by 55% from its January 11^th peak of 5082 ward patients. While this is good news hospitals remain near occupancy limits. 

As of February 12th, 701 (39%) of Arizona’s 1789 ICU beds were occupied with Covid-19 patients, a 17% decrease from the prior week’s count of 849 patients (Figure 4 and Figure 5 Panel B). An additional 232 (13%) ICU beds remained available for use. This is higher than the prior week’s 221 available beds. ICU occupancy has fallen 41% from its January 11^th peak of 1183 occupied beds.

Arizona hospitals’ safety margins remain lower than those of this fall but they are slowly improving (Figure 6, following page). Medically necessary procedures are now being scheduled in a limited capacity. Nevertheless, the tremendous backlog of postponed care will take months to resolve. The recent trends in hospitalization numbers and occupancy are encouraging. As capacity constraints are lessened, care practices should return to those prior to the outbreak ensuring all patients will receive optimal care. Nevertheless, hospitals will remain crowded through February before returning to pre-outbreak levels in early spring assuming continued reductions in viral transmission. 

The week ending January 17th remains Arizona’s deadliest with 995 deaths (Figure 7). The week of January 17^th should represent a peak with subsequent improvement in the coming weeks. Nevertheless, Covid-19 deaths are expected to remain high for the next 4 - 6 weeks.

For the week ending February 7th, 2429 Pima County residents were diagnosed with Covid-19 (Figure 8). This represents a 33% decrease from the 3620 cases initially reported last week. Test capacity and/or uptake also declined from last week.

Last week’s initial tally of 3620 cases was upwardly revised by 2% (65 cases) this week. Trends and case rates are similar across various age groups (Figure 9).