Arizona is transitioning from a period of substantial risk to one of moderate risk. While continuing small improvements are possible, it is becoming more likely that improvements will stall or reverse owing to more transmissible variants (e.g., B.1.1.7) and/or further normalization of business and social activities (e.g., EO 2021- 06). Hospital capacity remains adequate to meet Arizona’s needs; however, the backlog of non-Covid care has yet to be fully addressed as evidenced by unseasonably high hospital occupancy.

While residents and businesses should continue to follow public health recommendations, normalization of low-risk activities is reasonable. New cases are now being diagnosed at a rate of 53 per 100K residents per week; and, this rate is declining by approximately 8 cases per 100K residents per week. For reference, September 8^th marked the fall nadir between the summer and winter outbreaks at 38 per 100K per week. Unvaccinated Arizonans who are at risk of developing severe disease (e.g., age or comorbid conditions) or who simply wish to be vaccinated should remain sheltered as much as feasible as viral activity remains widespread.

Note: Data for this report was updated Friday, March 26 allowing 4 full days to adjudicate cases and keep week-over-week backfill <10%. This allows more interpretable comparisons and graphics. All comparisons are week-over-week changes. No update is planned for April 2nd, instead updates will now occur every other week.

Test positivity among those undergoing traditional nasopharyngeal PCR testing was essentially unchanged this week, at 8% the week ending March 21st (Figure 3). Positivity is now within the recommended 5 – 10% for optimal public health practice.

As of March 26th, 581 (7%) of Arizona’s 8591 general ward beds were occupied by Covid-19 patients, a 17% decrease from the previous week’s 700 occupied beds (Figure 4 and Figure 5 Panel A). Another 1049 (12%) beds remained available for use. The number of available beds is higher than the previous week’s 978 beds.

Covid-19 occupancy has dropped by 89% from its January 11th peak of 5082 ward patients. The summer-fall nadir was 468 occupied beds on September 27th.

As of March 26th, 181 (11%) of Arizona’s 1734 ICU beds were occupied with Covid-19 patients, a 0% decrease from the prior week’s count of 182 patients (Figure 4 and Figure 5 Panel B). An additional 252 (15%)

ICU beds remained available for use. This is similar to the prior week’s 259 available beds. ICU occupancy has fallen 85% from its January 11^th peak of 1183 occupied beds. The summer-fall nadir was 114 occupied beds on September 22^nd.

Arizona hospital occupancy remains above seasonal trends. Improvements in ward and ICU occupancy remain stalled at ≥85% occupancy (Figure 6). This indicates that medically necessary procedures that were previously postponed are being scheduled at higher than seasonal amounts to address the backlog of care. It will still take several more months to resolve. Occupancy will need to fall <70-75% before conditions will be back to “normal.” As capacity constraints are lessened, care practices should return to those prior to the outbreak ensuring all patients will receive optimal care. Hospitals will remain crowded through April before returning to pre-outbreak levels assuming continued reductions in viral transmission.

The week ending January 17th remains Arizona’s deadliest with 1065 deaths (Figure 7). Covid-19 deaths are expected to fall below 200 per week by the week ending March 14th or 21st.

For the week ending March 21st, 462 Pima County residents were diagnosed with Covid-19, a 16% decrease from the 548 cases initially reported last week (Figure 8). Last week’s initial tally was upwardly revised by <1% (4 cases) to 552 cases.

New cases are being diagnosed at a rate of 44 cases per 100K residents per week and are declining by approximately 9 cases per 100K residents per week. For reference, October 9th marked a nadir between the summer and winter outbreak at 46 cases per 100K residents per week. Trends are similar across the various age groups (Figure 9).