Overall, cases are being diagnosed at a rate of 68 per 100K residents per week. For reference, September 8^th marked the fall nadir between the summer and winter outbreaks at 38 cases per 100K residents per week. The post-holiday nadir was 54 cases per 100K residents on March 23, 2021. Case rates will likely remain “stuck” above the threshold differentiating substantial and moderate risk, 50 cases per 100K residents per week, for the next 4 – 6 weeks owing to more transmissible variants (e.g., B.1.1.7) and continued normalization of behaviors.

According to the CDC, vaccination rates continue to increase, albeit more slowly, with 39% of Arizona’s adult population being fully vaccinated and another 14% having received one dose (53% with ≥1 doses). With only 65% of its ≥65 population being fully vaccinated, Arizona ranks 40^th among the states. Unvaccinated adults who are at risk of developing severe disease (e.g., advanced age or comorbid conditions) or those who simply wish to remain uninfected should continue to follow recommended precautions as viral activity remains widespread.

Note: Data for this report was updated Friday, May 7 allowing 4 full days to adjudicate cases and keep week-over-week backfill <10%. This allows more interpretable comparisons and graphics. All comparisons are week-over-week changes.

Test positivity among those undergoing traditional nasopharyngeal PCR testing has plateaued at 10%, remaining within the 5 – 10% window for optimal public health practice (Figure 3).

As of May 6th, 666 (8%) of Arizona’s 8600 general ward beds were occupied by Covid-19 patients, an 8% increase from the previous week’s 618 occupied beds (Figure 4 and Figure 5 Panel A). Another 919 (11%) beds remained available for use. The number of available beds is lower than the previous week’s 984 beds.

The summer-fall nadir was 468 occupied beds on September 27th. The post-holiday nadir was 516 beds on April 4.

As of May 6th, 182 (11%) of Arizona’s 1731 ICU beds were occupied with Covid-19 patients, a small decrease from the prior week’s count of 189 patients (Figure 4 and Figure 5 Panel B). An additional 236 (15%) ICU beds remained available for use. This is similar to the prior week’s 237 available beds. The summer-fall nadir was 114 occupied beds on September 22^nd. The post-holiday nadir was 140 beds on April 7th.

Arizona hospital occupancy remains above seasonal levels. Improvements in ward and ICU occupancy have stalled at ≥85% occupancy (Figure 6). This indicates that medically necessary procedures that were previously postponed are being scheduled at higher than seasonal amounts to address the backlog of care. It will still take several more months to resolve. Occupancy will need to fall <70-75% before conditions will be back to “normal.” As capacity constraints are lessened, care practices should return to those prior to the outbreak ensuring all patients will receive optimal care. Hospitals will remain crowded through May - June before returning to pre-outbreak levels.

The week ending January 17th remains Arizona’s deadliest with 1089 deaths (Figure 7). With 73 deaths recorded on March 28^th, it is the first week with <100 Covid-19 deaths since October. The summer – fall nadir was 51 deaths the week ending October 4^th.

For the week ending May 2nd, 430 Pima County residents were diagnosed with Covid-19 (Figure 8). This is a 1% increase from the 425 cases initially reported last week.

New cases are being diagnosed at a rate of 41 cases per 100K residents per week, the lowest rate since May 28^th, 2020. October 9^th marked the summer - winter nadir at 46 cases per 100K residents per week and March 20^th marked the prior post-holiday nadir at 44 cases per 100K residents per week. Trends across the various age groups appear in Figure 9.